Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 0.016953 0.019184 0.021601 0.024413 0.027596 0.031089 0.035214
2025-09-21 0.013113 0.016112 0.019636 0.024086 0.029559 0.036079 0.044445
2025-09-28 0.010764 0.013990 0.017999 0.023350 0.030319 0.039102 0.051036
2025-10-05 0.009758 0.013281 0.017864 0.024272 0.033016 0.044560 0.061008
2025-10-12 0.008871 0.012567 0.017568 0.024844 0.035188 0.049406 0.070515
2025-10-19 0.008179 0.012008 0.017377 0.025472 0.037408 0.054421 0.080633
2025-10-26 0.007384 0.011198 0.016722 0.025326 0.038441 0.057763 0.088555
2025-11-02 0.006753 0.010554 0.016225 0.025330 0.039642 0.061385 0.097138
2025-11-09 0.006101 0.009805 0.015489 0.024873 0.040056 0.063789 0.103976
2025-11-16 0.005705 0.009416 0.015261 0.025172 0.041651 0.068122 0.114211
2025-11-23 0.005251 0.008886 0.014756 0.024963 0.042378 0.071079 0.122386
2025-11-30 0.005005 0.008675 0.014745 0.025560 0.044474 0.076427 0.135017
2025-12-07 0.004518 0.008018 0.013947 0.024764 0.044152 0.077717 0.140829
2025-12-14 0.004163 0.007561 0.013449 0.024448 0.044641 0.080445 0.149443
2025-12-21 0.003778 0.007015 0.012749 0.023701 0.044273 0.081591 0.155220
2025-12-28 0.003680 0.006983 0.012962 0.024636 0.047067 0.088688 0.172738
2026-01-04 0.003538 0.006856 0.012988 0.025218 0.049233 0.094774 0.188829
2026-01-11 0.003414 0.006750 0.013044 0.025855 0.051551 0.101317 0.206365
2026-01-18 0.003202 0.006457 0.012715 0.025707 0.052299 0.104857 0.218142
2026-01-25 0.003026 0.006218 0.012473 0.025711 0.053346 0.109056 0.231613
2026-02-01 0.002814 0.005888 0.012022 0.025247 0.053389 0.111210 0.240951
2026-02-08 0.002698 0.005748 0.011944 0.025551 0.055056 0.116835 0.258195
2026-02-15 0.002539 0.005505 0.011636 0.025338 0.055599 0.120129 0.270602